8. May 2025 | Press releases:

“Kosmos 482” on the verge of re-entry – TU Braunschweig calculates entry time Researchers at Technical University of Braunschweig simulate the return of the Soviet space probe

  • Re-entry of the remaining capsule of the space probe in a few days
  • Researchers at TU Braunschweig have calculated the time period using algorithms they developed themselves
  • The Institute of Space Systems has decades of experience in modelling the re-entry of spacecraft

Update 08.05.2025

The results of the new simulation using data from 7 May 2025 confirm the trend of the last few days. Re-entry is now expected on Saturday morning at around 6:45 a.m. CEST. The time interval is now only +/- 11 hours. During this period, ‘Kosmos 482’ could still fly over all continents, moving only between 52° north and south latitude. Initial investigations into the most likely area of re-entry are of little significance and only individual regions can be ruled out. ‘Kosmos 482’ is unlikely to re-enter over Australia, North America or South America.

Nevertheless, there is no cause for concern in Europe or the rest of the world. The probability of ‘Kosmos 482’ hitting a person is less than 1 in 20,000. ‘Kosmos 482’ would therefore have to enter the atmosphere 20,000 times to cause harm to a person, statistically speaking.

Update 07.05.2025

The results of the new simulation with data from 06.05.2025 show no significant changes in the re-entry window and the expected flight path. Re-entry is expected on Saturday morning shortly before 4 am (UTC). The time interval is now only +/- 16 hours. The development of the time interval also allows first estimates of the region of the world in which Kosmos 482 is most likely to land. The trend of the orbital heights has not changed significantly compared to the previous day.

Targeted re-entry predictions for individual objects are made at Technical University of Braunschweig using a simulation algorithm developed in-house. The simulation uses publicly available TLE data (a standardised format for specifying the position and velocity of a satellite) and space weather forecasts. Based on this data, the future positions of the object up to re-entry can be determined.

Development of the re-entry window over the last weeks. As the event approaches, the window can be predicted more accurately. Photo credit: IRAS/TU Braunschweig

The positions determined in this way are subject to certain uncertainties compared to the actual trajectory of the object due to simplified assumptions, deviations in the processed TLE data and fluctuations in space weather. For this reason, a time interval is calculated during which the object will enter the atmosphere. The closer the expected re-entry, the smaller the predicted time window. The simulation of 6 May 2025 predicts the re-entry of “Kosmos 482” in the early hours of Saturday morning (10 May 2025) at around 4 am, with a deviation of +/-1 day.

Launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Venera programme, the spacecraft was intended to make a soft landing on Venus. However, it never left Earth’s gravitational field. Due to an error, it went into an eccentric orbit. There the spacecraft separated from the entry capsule. The bus burned up in the Earth’s atmosphere many decades ago. Only the entry capsule remained in orbit since then.

The expected trajectory of the object over the next few days. Photo credit: IRAS/TU Braunschweig

The probe’s capsule has a mass of 495 kilograms and a diameter of about one metre. Unless the heat shield has been seriously damaged by ageing over the past 53 years, it is highly likely that the capsule will survive entry into the Earth’s atmosphere unscathed. Typical heat shield materials for such capsules are fibre composites, consisting of a matrix of phenolic resin with embedded glass fibres.

The capsule has a parachute to slow it down. Some observations suggest that the parachute may have already been deployed, although this has not been confirmed. The TU researchers assume that the parachute will not affect the trajectory of “Kosmos 482”. This assumption leads to a purely ballistic re-entry with subsequent impact on the Earth’s surface. Due to its nearly spherical shape and the known values for the diameter and mass of the re-entry capsule, it is an ideal reference object for validating re-entry models.